After months of The Great Resignation and thousands of employees participating in “the Big Quit,” has the tide turned? Exactly what is going on in the current job market?
We asked Sara Causey, a Staffing & Recruiting SME and the owner of Causey Consulting LLC, to offer her insights.
You certainly have been on the cutting edge of reporting what’s happening in the job market. Why are you so passionate about this?
Ultimately it is because I don’t want anyone to be caught off-guard. So many outlets and platforms are putting out a weird mixed bag of news. I still encounter candidates who think The Great Resignation is going strong and they can job-hop across the market forever. And frankly, that worries me.
There is a rule of thumb that the last one hired is often the first one who gets a pink-slip if layoffs happen. That is not always the case 100% of the time, but it does happen. So I think part of what a person has to consider is whether the tenure they currently have is or isn’t worth more than making a job change. Plus I see what I unaffectionately call social media panderers posting garbage online that, in my opinion, will not help anyone in a recession or a 1970s stagflation economy.
That sounds like a pretty juicy comment.
Laughs. I’m sure. In a robust economy or a truly hot job market, candidates have more options. It’s basic supply and demand. If there are more open jobs than available candidates who want them, the job seekers hold the cards. However, in a time of high unemployment, there is more competition for whatever open jobs exist. But that’s not nearly as enticing to people on social media looking for someone to tell them whatever they want to hear, whether it’s, “The job market is still hot and you can job-hop forever” or “You should never, ever have to do a job you dislike in order to draw a salary and benefits. YOLO and FOMO forever!” It’s important to remember that these so-called influencers will not pay your bills and cover your basics if you take their advice and it doesn’t go well.
Excellent point. We listened to your podcast episode about Job Market Predictions and they seem to be spot on.
Not long after I recorded that episode, I saw three separate announcements in one evening of people in HR setting out shingles to become coaches, so that prediction came true even faster than I expected. I’m also seeing more people on freelancing websites turning to the gig economy either to make ends meet or to help fill the gap until they find permanent employment again.
In the short term, where do you think the job market is headed?
The million-dollar question! No one knows for sure. My best guess is that we will likely see more layoffs and hiring freezes in the short term. I know that is not what anyone wants to hear, but that’s the most likely scenario that I believe is coming. I hope I am wrong and that maybe there will be some sort of economic Hail Mary Pass that saves the day, but I think it’s wise to be prepared for any scenario.
For more HR insights, you can visit Sara at causeyconsultingllc.com.